iMediaEthics Methodology & Topline for Poll on Donald Trump’s Tax Returns

by David W. Moore May 15, 2017 04:59 AM EST

Tags: Donald Trump, Fact Checking, Media Polls, Taxes, U.S.

(Credit: PSRAI, screenshot)

Methodology and Topline for iMediaEthics Poll on Donald Trump’s Tax Returns

Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Policy Questions Designed by iMediaEthics. Demographic Questions Designed by PSRAI

The PSRAI May 2017 poll obtained telephone interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,001 adults living in the continental United States. Sample was provided by SSI (https://www.surveysampling.com). Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (501) and cell phone (500, including 287 without a landline phone). The survey was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International (PSRAI). Interviews were done in English and Spanish by Princeton Data Source from May 4-7, 2017. Statistical results are weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies. The margin of sampling error, adjusted for design effects, for the complete set of weighted data is ± 4.0 percentage points.

Final Topline Results

Total:	1,001 adults age 18 and older
	Margin of error: Plus or minus 4.0 percentage points
Form A:	508 adults age 18 and older
	Margin of error: Plus or minus 5.7 percentage points
Form B:	493 adults age 18 and older
	Margin of error: Plus or minus 5.6 percentage points
Think Trump should release tax returns:	586 adults age 18 and older
	Margin of error: Plus or minus 5.2 percentage points
Think Trump should NOT release tax returns:	236 adults age 18 and older
	Margin of error: Plus or minus 8.3 percentage points

INTERVIEW DATES: May 4-7, 2017

LANDLINE INTRODUCTION:

Hello, my name is _________________ and I’m calling for Princeton Survey Research. We’re conducting a study about some important issues today, and would like to include your household. [RANDOMIZE RESPONDENT SELECTION: May I please speak with the YOUNGEST ADULT MALE, age 18 or older, who is now at home? (IF NO MALE AT HOME NOW, ASK: May I please speak with the YOUNGEST ADULT FEMALE, age 18 or older, who is now at home?) / May I please speak with the YOUNGEST ADULT FEMALE, age 18 or older, who is now at home? (IF NO FEMALE AT HOME NOW, ASK: May I please speak with the YOUNGEST ADULT MALE, age 18 or older, who is now at home?)]

CELL PHONE INTRO:

Hello, I am ___ calling for Princeton Survey Research. We’re conducting a study about some important issues today. [IF RESPONDENT SAYS DRIVING/UNABLE TO TAKE CALL: Thank you. We will try you another time…]

CELL PHONE SCREENING INTERVIEW:

S1. Are you under 18 years old, OR are you 18 or older? [CONTINUE IF 18 OR OLDER; ALL OTHERS TERMINATE]

READ TO ALL CELL PHONE – INTRODUCTION TO MAIN INTERVIEW: If you are now driving a car or doing any activity requiring your full attention, I need to call you back later. The first question is…

Notes: Due to rounding, percentages may not add to 100%. An asterisk (*) indicates values less than 0.5%. Volunteered responses are indicated by (VOL.).

IM1. As far as you know, has Donald Trump publicly released his tax returns for the past several years, has he not publicly released them, or don’t you know one way or the other?

	%
Yes, has publicly released tax returns	6
No, has not	50
Don’t know one way or the other	41
(VOL.) Refused	3

IM2A1 You may not have heard, but Donald Trump has NOT publicly released his tax returns for the past several years.

Do you think Donald Trump should – or should not – publicly release his tax returns for the past several years, or are you unsure?

Based on Form A and doesn’t know Trump hasn’t released tax returns (n=227)

	%
Should release	37
Should not release	27
Unsure	33
(VOL.) Refused	4

IM2A2 Do you think Donald Trump should – or should not – publicly release his tax returns for the past several years, or are you unsure?

Based on Form A and knows Trump hasn’t released tax returns (n=281)

	%
Should release	73
Should not release	19
Unsure	7
(VOL.) Refused	2

SUMMARY OF IM2A1 & IM2A2 BASED ON FORM A (N=508)

	%
Should release	54
Should not release	23
Unsure	20
(VOL.) Refused	3

IM2B1 You may not have heard, but Donald Trump has NOT publicly released his tax returns for the past several years.

Do you think Donald Trump should – or should not – publicly release his tax returns for the past several years?

Based on Form B and doesn’t know Trump hasn’t released tax returns (n=214)

	%
Should release	46
Should not release	29
(VOL.) Unsure	21
(VOL.) Refused	5

IM2B2 Do you think Donald Trump should – or should not – publicly release his tax returns for the past several years?

Based on Form B and knows Trump hasn’t released tax returns (n=279)

	%
Should release	79
Should not release	16
(VOL.) Unsure	4
(VOL.) Refused	1

SUMMARY OF IM2B1 & IM2B2 BASED ON FORM B (N=493)

	%
Should release	63
Should not release	22
(VOL.) Unsure	12
(VOL.) Refused	3

IM3A How upset are you that Donald Trump has NOT publicly released his tax returns for the past several years? [READ]

Based on those who think Trump should release tax returns (n=586)

	%
Very upset	38
Somewhat upset	29
Not too upset	16
Not upset at all	14
(VOL.) Don’t know	2
(VOL.) Refused	1

IM3B How upset would you be if Donald Trump were required to publicly release his tax returns for the past several years? [READ]

Based on those who think Trump should not release tax returns (n=236)

	%
Very upset	9
Somewhat upset	15
Not too upset	15
Not upset at all	56
(VOL.) Don’t know	3
(VOL.) Refused	2

DEMOGRAPHICS

I have one last set of questions to help us better understand the people who took part in our survey.

SEX Respondent’s sex [DO NOT ASK]

	%
Male	49
Female	51

EMPLOY Are you now employed full-time, part-time, or not employed?

	%
Total Employed	62
Employed full-time	51
Employed part-time	11
Not employed	37
(VOL.) Don’t know/Refused	1

MARITAL Are you currently married, living with a partner, divorced, separated, widowed, or have you never been married?

[IF R SAYS “SINGLE,” PROBE TO DETERMINE WHICH CATEGORY IS APPROPRIATE]

	%
Married	47
Living with a partner	7
Divorced	11
Separated	2
Widowed	5
Never been married	26
Don’t know/Refused (VOL.)	1

PAR Are you the parent or guardian of any children under 18 years of age?

	%
Yes	33
No	66
(VOL.) Don’t know/Refused	1

AGE What is your age?

	%
18 to 29	19
30 to 49	36
50 to 64	25
65 and older	16
(VOL.) Refused	3

EDUC What is the highest level of school you have completed or the highest degree you have received? [DO NOT READ]

	%
Less than high school (Grades 1-8 or no formal schooling)	2
High school incomplete (Grades 9-11 or Grade 12 with NO diploma)	7
High school graduate (Grade 12 with diploma or GED certificate)	32
Some college, no degree (includes some community college)	17
Two year associate degree from a college/university	13
Four year college or university degree/Bachelor’s degree	17
Some postgraduate or professional schooling, no postgraduate degree	1
Postgraduate or professional degree, including master’s, doctorate, medical or law degree	11
Don’t know/Refused	*

Summary: Race/Ethnicity

HISP Are you of Hispanic or Latino origin, such as Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban or some other Spanish background?

RACE What is your race? Are you white, black, Asian, or some other race? [IF RESPONDENT SAYS HISPANIC OR LATINO, PROBE: Do you consider yourself a WHITE (Hispanic/Latino) or a BLACK (Hispanic/Latino)?

	%
White, non-Hispanic	61
Total non-White	35
Black, non-Hispanic	12
Hispanic	15
Asian/Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic	5
Other, non-Hispanic	3
(VOL.) Don’t know/Refused	4

INC Last year – that is, in 2016 – approximately what was your total family income before taxes? Just tell me when I get to the right category.

	%
Less than $10,000	10
$10,000 to under $20,000	10
$20,000 to under $30,000	9
$30,000 to under $40,000	8
$40,000 to under $50,000	9
$50,000 to under $75,000	12
$75,000 to under $100,000	10
$100,000 to under $150,000	10
$150,000 or over	9
(VOL.) Don’t know/Refused	14

REG Which of these statements best describes you? [READ IN ORDER]

	%
Are you ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that you are registered to vote at your current address	74
Are you PROBABLY registered, but there is a chance your registration has lapsed, OR	4
Are you NOT registered to vote at your current address?	21
(VOL.) Don’t know/Refused	2